The case
Even though predictions for immigration are subject to uncertainty, i.e. whether numbers will increase or level off, demographics experts can state one thing: The aging populatio is going to cause problems in Switzerland.
The commentary
By the year 2040 the age group of the 65-year olds will have grown by 40 % while the number of the working population will have increased by 4 % only, which entails consequences that go far beyond the financing of AHV, problems which, according to experts, have been ignored in the current debate.
Within a few decades there may be family homes available in places no one fancies, a phenomenon noticed already today, notably a period of housing shortage. In many a location there are vacancies of spacious flats and family homes, and their numbers are on the rise.
The underlying problem is that the planning of real estate is still geared around a four-person household whereas the longer the more people either live alone or in 2-people households, a trend that is going to grow the older the popluation gets. Experts claim that the problem is not so much about the shortage of housing but about the wrong kind of housing, which is adding to the problem. The question that arises is what is going to happen with banks that have been focussing on the mortgage business if old age pensioners no longer fulfil the affordability requirements and there are no suitable buyers for their houses. Experts say that this is the biggest risk for Switzerland’s real estate market and the banks.
