The case

A recent UBS study indicates that a significant majority of Swiss companies are concerned about the potential impact of US tariff policies. Among the approximately 400 surveyed companies, 70 % are anticipating a negative effect on their business activities.

The commentary

This sentiment aligns with broader economic forecasts, as UBS economists have revised the growth projection of Switzerland’s 2025 GDP from 1.5 % to 1 %, citing global trade uncertainties, particularly US customs policies, as a major contributing factor. The pharmaceutical sector is particularly vulnerable, given that it exports about 60 % of its products to the USA.

UBS economists have warned that prolonged trade barriers could incentivize pharmaceutical companies to relocate their production and research facilities to the USA, potentially leading to significant losses in value creation and tax revenues for Switzerland.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are also expressing concern. A Raiffeisen study reveals that nearly 30 % of SMEs surveyed are expecting a revenue decline exceeding 20 % if a 10 % import duty is imposed. A quarter of these SMEs are anticipating a drop of up to      20 %.

In response to these concerns, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has acknowledged the potential economic fallout from escalating global trade tensions, particularly US tariffs. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasized that such uncertainties could hinder investment and economic growth, and while the central bank aims to maintain price stability, it may adjust monetary policy if necessary.