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Financial forecast for 2025: Deficit of CHF 0.6 billion
The case
The Federal Council took note of the end-September forecast for 2025 today.
Source: admin.ch
The commentary
The Confederation expects a financial deficit of CHF 0.6 billion for 2025, which is CHF 0.4 billion more than the June 2025 estimate but still better than the originally budgeted CHF 0.8 billion shortfall, due to largely higher income.
The new US tariffs are not expected to impact federal finances significantly this year, though they could affect VAT as of 2026 and have additional effects on receipts with a longer lag.
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